[SMM Chrome Daily Review] Favorable demand boosts confidence in ferrochrome price rise; chrome ore market generally stable with slight rise

On August 12, 2025, the ex-factory price of high-carbon ferrochrome in Inner Mongolia was 7,900-8,000 yuan/mt (50% metal content); in Sichuan and north-west China, it was also 7,900-8,000 yuan/mt (50% metal content); in east China, the quoted price was 8,100-8,250 yuan/mt (50% metal content); in South Africa, it was 7,800-8,000 yuan/mt (50% metal content); and in Kazakhstan, it was 8,800-9,000 yuan/mt (50% metal content), up slightly by 25 yuan/mt (50% metal content) MoM from the previous trading day.

During the day, ferrochrome prices saw a slight increase. Supported by both costs and demand, producers held firm on prices and had a strong bullish outlook, with market transaction activity continuing to rebound. On the cost side, the sixth round of coke price increases was underway, and there were also price increases for raw chrome ore, keeping ferrochrome smelting costs at high levels and supporting a gradual price increase. On the supply and demand side, there were no resumptions of overseas ferrochrome production, and a supply gap existed due to reduced imported ferrochrome. However, increased domestic ferrochrome production helped narrow this gap, with the overall market in a tight balance. Macro tailwinds continued to stimulate the downstream stainless steel market, with futures breaking through 13,000 yuan/mt, boosting spot prices, enhancing transactions, and leading to a continuous decline in social inventory. Moreover, the estimated planned production for August rebounded to a high of 3.3 million mt, with relatively increased demand for ferrochrome. Ferrochrome producers were mostly bullish, and the current market expectation for the September steel mill tender price was mostly flat. It is expected that the ferrochrome market will generally operate in a stable manner with a slight rise.

In terms of raw materials, on August 12, 2025, the spot price of 40-42% South African powder at Tianjin Port was 54.5-55.5 yuan/mtu; the price of 40-42% South African raw ore was 49-51 yuan/mtu; the price of 46-48% Zimbabwe chrome concentrate powder was 57.5-58.5 yuan/mtu; the price of 48-50% Zimbabwe chrome concentrate powder ore was 58.5-60 yuan/mtu; and the price of 40-42% Turkish chrome lump ore was 60-61 yuan/mtu, with some prices up by 0.5 yuan/mtu MoM from the previous trading day. On the futures front, 40-42% South African powder held steady at 267-270 US dollars/mt; 48-50% Zimbabwe chrome concentrate powder was quoted at 335-345 US dollars/mt, up by 10 US dollars/mt MoM.

During the day, the chrome ore market operated smoothly, with no adjustments to quoted prices and moderate inquiry and transaction activity. Affected by the increase in ferrochrome production and the upward adjustment of ferrochrome prices, chrome ore traders were mostly optimistic about future chrome ore prices, with a strong bullish outlook and instances of hoarding. On the futures side, influenced by bullish expectations, overseas chrome ore quoted prices increased slightly, and shipments were controlled, enhancing competition pressure for traders to purchase. In addition, the news that Zimbabwe plans to promote a comprehensive ban on chrome ore exports has attracted market attention. If the final policy is implemented, domestic chrome ore supply may tighten, and China's reliance on South African chrome ore will further increase. Subsequent developments in Zimbabwe's chrome ore export policy will continue to be monitored.